The Indian Union Budget 2019: Guided towards ‘Blue Sky Thinking’

Part 2

The Indian Union Budget 2019: Guided towards ‘Blue Sky Thinking’

(While Part 1 of article was about Vision Document Economic Survey 2019, Part 2 relates about ‘The Indian Union Budget 2019’ and how it would guide us towards those principles underlined in Vision Document)

‘The Union Budget 2019’ is actually mission guidelines and ways for fulfilling what’s envisaged in India’s Vision Document ‘Economic Survey of India 2019’. Union Budget is not just an extension but the basic formulation of country’s policy and how money should be efficiently utilized in each respective area.

Technically, the Union Budget of India, is referred as the Annual Financial Statement in the Article 112 of the Constitution of India, which is the annual budget of the Republic of India. The Union Budget consists of a detailed account of the government’s finances, its revenues from various sources and expenditures to be incurred on different activities that it will incur.

Like the Economic Survey, ‘The Union Budget 2019’ features about PM Modi’s vision for US dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-2025 driven by investment, strengthening infrastructure connectivity and transforming rural life. First timer Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman carried out budget documents in red cloth with National Emblem, ribbon instead of British-era traditional briefcase. Ms. Sitharaman presented her maiden budget of Narendra Modi 2.0 Government in the Lok Sabha where “Gaon, Garib and Kisan (village, poor, and farmer) is at the centre of all policies of the government. Like the economic survey main topic ‘Behavioural Economics’, it again forms a part of Union Budget with thrust areas like – India will be Open Defecation Free by October 2nd, 2019 falling on 150^th Birth Anniversary of Mahatma. It proposes development of Gandhipedia to sensitise youth and society about positive Gandhian values.

Union Budget underlines major issue concerning Indian Economy – unemployment particularly its youths, Infrastructure and NBFCs problem, NPAs and stressed assets in Banking Industry, rural economy and transforming rural lives and lays down its path ahead. It thrusts upon making India US dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-2025 and Infrastructural development for next 5 years with 100 lakhs crores, and investment of 50 lakhs crores specially in Railways and suburban railway network through special purpose vehicles(SPVs) which would give a massive push to all forms of physical connectivity via :-

a)    PMGSY – Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana with an emphasis for last mile connectivity to village areas. There is an increase of 22.6% outlay from last 15500 crores to 19000 crores

b)    Bharatmala – INR 80,250 crores allocated for upgradation of 1.25 lakh kms of roads over five years. Starting of phase 2 of Bharatmala project with special emphasis on state road networks with plans for restructuring of National Highways Programme.

c)    Sagarmala  and Jal Marg vikas – It will improve logistics, reducing transportation cost and increasing competitiveness. India’s first inland waterway multi-model terminal (MMT) at Varanasi was inaugurated on 12 November 2018 by Hon’ble PM and first container consignment on Ganga which had sailed from Kolkata was received at Varanasi MMT on the same day.

d)    Industrial corridors and Dedicated freight corridors – This will give a push to container service and its connectivity to ports

e)    UDAN scheme – Under UDAN (Ude Desh ke Aam Naagrik) scheme number of operational airports crossed 100. UDAN (International) Scheme has been launched recently, under which Guwahati Airport will be connected to Bangkok and Dhaka shortly. There is a proposal to increase FDI in aviation sector with suitable policy intervention for Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) industry and aircraft financing & leasing.

f)     Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana – PMAY was launched on June 25, 2015 with the objective of providing housing facilities to all eligible families and beneficiaries by 2022. There is additional deduction of ₹1.5 lakh on loans up to March 31 2020 for buying affordable houses, giving ₹ 7 lakh benefit to home buyers.  Model Tenancy Act to be finalised and private parties to be given opportunity to develop projects on land banks held by central ministries and CPSEs through innovative structures. Government agenda ‘Housing for all by 2022’ mission with targeted 1.95 crores houses to be provided to eligible beneficiaries.

Union Budget stresses heavy investment in infrastructure and Digital Economy with proposed 5G launch by 2020 for creating jobs in small and medium firms and increased connectivity. There is a roadmap for developing gas grids, water grids, I-ways, and regional airports on the anvil.

The other sectors where it has touched specifically and intertwined with our economy - 

1)   Start – ups: For the issues of unemployment among youths, Start-ups have again given a push outlining key initiatives to promote and support it. One such initiative is a TV channel for start-ups that will be designed & executed by a start-up. There is continuation of Stand-Up India Scheme till 2025

2)    Higher Education: Making a hub of higher education, Ms. Sitharaman announced the ‘Study in India’ programme for transforming India’s higher education system to global standards & attracting foreign students. ‘New National Educational Policy’ hopes to transform Indian education into one of the best in the world, with focus on bringing in foreign students.

3)    Electric Vehicles: Union Budget proposes INR 10,000 crores allocated to Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME II) scheme over three years. GST rate on electric vehicles proposed to be lowered to 5% from existing 12%. Government proposes Investment linked deductions for setting up mega-manufacturing plants for solar photovoltaic cells, lithium storage batteries, solar electric charging infrastructure etc. Union Budget 2019 is looking to leapfrog launch for E-Mobility with a tax deduction of INR 1.5 Lakh for interest paid on loans for Electric Vehicles not for personal uses. It proposes exemption on import for specified parts of electric vehicles such as E-Drive assembly, On board charger, E-Compressor and charging gun.

4)    MSMEs, Labour Laws and Wage Bills: Interest subvention scheme for MSMEs with 350 crores allocated for 2019-20 with Government proposes streamlining multiple labour laws into a set of four Labour Codes.

                           

5)    Financial Sector: ₹70,000 crore will be provided for recapitalisation for public sector banks along with consolidation of smaller banks with big ones. There is record recovery of Rs. 4lakh crores in last 4 years due to IBC and other recovery measures. Government will work with regulators RBI/SEBI to enable stock exchanges to allow AA rated bonds as collaterals. But the problem of NBFCs are still here and well-known. Either their shares are down or they stopped trading or some other NBFCs are looking to be acquired by large Banks to avoid for any further losses. Being a shadow bank they are putting more pressure to formal Banking system and overall credit system. 

6)    Push to Private Investment: Lower rate of 25 % Corporate Tax extended to companies with Annual Turnover up to Rs. 400 crore from the earlier cap of up to Rs 250 crore will push to private investment and help those SMEs which are not able to do so due to tax compliance and remain as dwarfs.

7)  Rural economy and rural household: By 2022, on the 75th year of Independence, government has planned that every single rural family, except those who are unwilling to take the connection, will have electricity and clean cooking facility. There is stress on zero-budget farming, which is a form of gardening as a self-sustainable practice, with minimum external intervention. The pension benefit will be extended to 3 crore retail traders under PM Karam Yogi Maan Dhan Scheme. It requires only Aadhaar numbers and bank accounts.

Other highlights of the Union Budget:

1. PAN and Aadhaar will become interchangeable. We can use our Aadhaar number to file our I-T Returns soon.
2. To resolve the angel tax issue, start-ups will not be subject to any scrutiny in respect to valuation and funds raised by start-ups will not require any scrutiny by the I-T department.

Nevertheless, there are two school of thoughts regarding increase in surcharge by 3% for those with taxable income between 2-5 crore rupees and by 5% to those with income of over rupees 5 crores.

There is always a scope and space for interpretation and for that one group says it will dampen economic growth and hampers economy and leads to capital flight to low tax nations while the others thought it will increase tax collection for other economic development. But for me if this does not help in bridging inequality down then what does!! Intellectual and economist may have thoughts always against taxing rich, against subsidy, DBTs, and against anything which is pro-poor as an excuse of economy but does not provide options for bridging inequality. For Rich oligarchs they don’t want revised wage bills, labour laws or anything pro-poor in name of anti-market sentiments, but they want easy laws for acquiring agricultural lands and natural resources. It would be much better if economic theory or industrialists can justify their own dichotomy!!

Again before ending the article, it’s important to know that more than the Budget Speech it’s necessary to understand the sources from which government collects taxes and where it is going to spend the next year. Lack of understanding will keep creating fuggy logic and same WhatsApp university questions again and again. I want to paraphrase one of my close friend message – “If NTPC is giving profit of 7000 crores yearly, then why government is looking for its disinvestment? It’s been informed that government collected 16.5 lakhs crores of direct and indirect tax but for making roads they need private parties who again would collect toll for 30 years. There are none new hospitals, colleges, roads, universities, or new recruitment made then where are those 16.5 lakhs crores money going? They have already stopped giving pensions and public has already stopped getting subsidy for diesel, petrol, LPG! Government is looking for making railways private, airports are already sold, and now they are looking to PSUs because they believe in private corporations who invested heavily in last elections.”

• These are some of questions which look illogical when you start finding their answers and having a clear and basic understanding.  We all know government has ₹1.05 lakh crore disinvestment target for the year and it’s in bad taste to say that government’s part selling of NTPC is wrong. Government will/maybe selling a part stake in NTPC which it can buyback anytime in future and it has done so in past (Nationalization of banks in 1969). Moreover, every year Gov. has some target for disinvestment for other infra projects which are backbone for Nation’s development.
• Whatever tax government has collected and where it has decided to spend is well articulated in every year Union Budget. It just needs a through reading and understanding for the same. How there is a fight for every percentage GDP expense among each sectors from Union Budget - health, space, social welfare, and where approx. 10% of GDP is utilized for Defence, 40% interest for loans from world bank, IMF and other institutions have become a norm.
• It’s impossible for government to build every National Highway and provide last mile connectivity without private participation. They need to come up with innovative models - PPP mode (Public Private Partnership), Build-operate-Transfer (BOT) models, Toll-Operate-transfer (TOT), Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) Models) with private sectors participation and to be truthful there are not many takers even under HAM Models where government is part taking risk. For the infrastructure building in educational sectors we have across 20 newer IITs/IIMs/NIFTs/AIIMS and fund requirement for running each college runs in billions.
• Nobody can think government should provide pensions when more than 30%youngsters are unemployed and numbers are going to increase in a decade. Young people in India are working as contract employees and from their tax it’s unethical to pay pensions for retired personnel. There was a decade in 80s -90s when pension was feasible in India due to its social family structure and less government employee’s burden with no demographic dividend problem.
• Huge amounts of subsidy are still provided in LPG/Diesel/Petroleum sectors in India which runs in billions and becomes necessity looking over the rural-urban divide in India.
• For the railways it has excess inventory of unutilized land along with other CPSEs that can be utilized and help in nation building. A very few airports are given for lease hold to private sectors for operational purposes for which government gets money utilized for other purposes which is not at all bad when its security is under CISF personnel and to be factual more than 100 airports have become operational under UDAN scheme.

And for those who wants to remain illiterate or wants to know how every penny is collected and utilized it's well documented in Union Budget and for that one only needs to read and understand it or can listen to Finance Minister Union Budget 2019 speech.

(Views expressed are personal and in continuation to Part 1 of article - ‘Economic Survey: Vision document of the people, by the people, for the people of India’)

‘Economic Survey: Vision document of the people, by the people, for the people of India’

(Article is presented in two parts - Part 1 covers about India’s Vision document: Economic Survey while Part 2 is on Union Budget 2019: Mission document and how their intricacies are trying to guide us for the vision of US Dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-2025 as envisaged in Economic Survey 2019)

                                                                      

                                                             Part 1

‘Economic Survey: Vision document of the people, by the people, for the people of India’

‘Economic Survey 2019’ for the first time made a departure from past trends on many fronts. It’s a departure of India’s past for the future while travailing its path of present. It has aspirations, ambitions and data centric targets. It lays emphasis on ‘Behavioural Economics’ in the age of Robotics!! There is a fine departure from past trends ‘Classical Economics’ which envisages economy always in equilibrium, into an economy which is either in virtuous or vicious cycle and thus can never be in an equilibrium. It focuses on Behavioural Economics, Nudge Theory which Chief Economic Advisor of India studied during his Chicago Booth days from none other than Richard Thaler!! (Noble Prize for Economics in 2017). There might be some who neither understand or believe nor glorify the contents of ‘Nudge Theory’ but Noble Prize and empirical research has made it sacrosanct in Modern Economics. People of India, politicians, economists or any learned person whatever be your ideology can’t target Economic Policy 2019 neither its shift to Behavioural Economics when world has celebrated ‘Nudge Theory’ with a Nobel Prize. Further, everyone knows how economic equilibrium was challenged in the aftermath of global recession 2008.

 

‘Economic Survey 2019’ is touted as Country’s Vision document and guided by ‘Blue Sky Thinking’ & US dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-2025. It’s the first time youngest CEA Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian & PEA Sanjeev Sanyal, two of India’s finest minds have come up with short videos of approx. 2mins detailing outlines of each chapters like chapter 1: shifting gears & other chapters like- policy for real people, not robots, Nourishing dwarfs to become trees etc. and ‘chapters at a glance’ at every chapter end thus concluding it perfectly for a layman. Economic Survey entails some of important aspects concerning political-socio-economic conditions of India’s progress and it highlights -

• Report tells about Virtuous cycle of saving, consumption & investment, exports and jobs. Investment will lead to increase in production which leads to increase in exports & Jobs. It lays emphasis on US dollar 5 trillion economy by 2024-2025
• Easing out labour laws with an example of Rajasthan vis-a-vis with rest of country where how the state has benefited from it
• Data of the people, by the people, for the people and how Marginal cost of data goes down vs Marginal cost of benefit creating a massive social impact
• Chapter 5 touches a very critical issue impacting everyone and rural India in a lot: Ease of contractual improvement through productivity increase of Judiciary and a well-defined data percentage point improvement where backlog cases can be improved by efficiency improvement of 25% for lower courts, 18% for Supreme Court & 5% for High Court with same level of sanctioned persons allotted.
• Growth model is again put on time & tested export-oriented one while taking examples and data analysis from East Asian countries, China, Japan of 80s, Mexico, US & others with marvellous data patterns
• Economic Survey touches upon Demographic pattern of each Indian states till 2041 where competition is shown on declining trend in year 2041 but it forgets to mention about ageing population in year 2041 and how it will impact our society & economy
• A centralised Minimum wages scheme is suggested to look upon when country has more than 1k minimum wages provisions for different states & Industries

Economic Survey and Economic Advisor in his speech puts special emphasis on private investment, data as public good, judicial reforms & India’s emergence as EV hub is quite inspiring.

It emphasises for EVs in India, a switch from conventional combustion engine players which makes one remember about complex political compulsion during introduction of computers in 90s or the use of ‘Jute-plastic’ and was a headache for government then. India has ambitious plan of leapfrogging to EVs that will eventually knock out conventional combustion engine cars which has to follow another regulatory reforms BS VI by 2020 adding more to their costs.

Government has put special emphasis for Electric Vehicles and its infrastructure. INR 10,000 crore allocated to the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME II) scheme over three years. The industry is in its nascent stage but there’s a thrust in Union Budget and Government has introduced deduction of interest upto INR 150,000 on loan taken for purchasing electric vehicles is like envisioning a leap-frogging launch for E-mobility. Further, exemption on import of specified parts of electric vehicles such as E-Drive assembly, On board charger, E-Compressor and Charging Gun is made to encourage the segment. Government has recommended reduction of GST from 12% to 5% on EVs to GST council. It may not be unrealistic to visualise one of the Indian cities emerging as Detroit of EVs in the future.

There are definitely contradictions in report and from past official government deliberations as it talks about convergence of data which was against the spirit of ‘Aadhaar Act’ where it has put some restrictions of how to use it and for what Supreme Court has upheld its decision. Convergence of data has beneficial effects if used in a controlled and limited manner like the one it talks about-  Telangana Government ‘Samagra Vedika Initiative’ where seven categories of information about individuals are integrated for providing better potential benefits. Government is required to show restraint in the matter and build a better data protection authority.

The reports further gives the pill of ‘Nudge’ everywhere like suggesting and naming schemes after what they offer will nudge people to take them without considering that most of them have Hindi names having less impact in Non-Hindi states.

But finally you may call ‘India’s Economic Survey 2019’ as unrealistic or may laugh at calling it secular and philosophical but the Economic Survey 2019 has carried out a fantastic report and should be called as ‘BADLAV’ in real sense firstly due to its departure from past trends.

Economic Survey mentions BADLAV as - Beti Apki Dhan Laxmi aur Vijay Laxmi as an adoption of Behavioural economics; transforming from ‘Beti Bachao Beti Padhao’ and there are other references such as Vaidic women sages - Gargi, Maitreyi, Janki Raman and Radha-Krishn which is a welcome step for presenting it with an Indian touch in itself.