(Views expressed are personal and in continuation
to Moditva 2014, Part –I)
Moditva Rewinded 2.0: Creative
Disrupter
It’s almost clear that NDA (National Democratic
Alliance) is going to get the majority in General Election 2019 with Prime
Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi as its Prime Minister for next term. The voices
are again started resonating in ears of his followers - ‘मैं नरेंद्र दामोदर दास मोदी ईश्वर की शपथ लेता हूं कि मैं विधि द्वारा स्थापित भारत के संविधान के प्रति सच्ची श्रद्धा और निष्ठा रखूंगा।’
Voters Turnout and
VVPAT issue concludes Third and biggest phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 on
April 23, 2019 for the largest chunk of 117 seats. It will subsume next 4 phase
action, emotions and reactions of candidates and voters & will finalise on
23rd May result. There is a Modi wave once again and opposition looks lost
the battle someway in middle with main opposition party Congress without having
a proper channelized way of campaign.
In a nutshell, main constituencies having an effect
and showing an overall picture of Indian election 2019 is mainly attributed to
a few select ones having significance of regional across states, voting pattern
and parties stability.
Varanasi: Battle for Banaras and its significance
with effects concludes tomorrow on April 25, 2019 with full day PM road show
campaigning; & his invincibility is waiting for Congress UP east general
secretary to contest. City & kumbh impact helps party in sailing through across
50/80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Rampur:
It’s a sure win for Azam Khan looking the weak & hindu candidate from
congress side. If the BJP can manage to win it, it will sweep the whole west UP
surpassing its tally of 282 in general election 2014.
Begusarai: Tanveer Hassan of RJD is an important and strong candidate whom no media houses
want to know, if he is not able to win by a whisker then all credit goes to Giriraj Singh. 2014 votes by BJP bhola singh - 4.28lacs; RJD Tanvir - 3.7lacs; CPI RP singh -1.92 lacs having its max number in Independent India with Nitish kumar JDU support in 2014
On a macro level its pure mathematics and on a micro level its just caste equation & chemistry in Bihar & not algorithmically artificial intelligence generated twitter profiles. Like RJDs, Nitish EBC & women vote banks are too much consolidated & Yes, Giriraj will only win. It will bring down curtain on 9th feb 2016 JNU mindset when all naxalites got together to celebrate afzal guru tukde-tukde mindset.The infamed JNU boy is having its tally even less than CPI candidate for 2014. It’s good all urban naxals- Prakash Raj, kunal kamra, Javed akhtar, swara, shehla, jignesh et al have collected itself at one place to know their worth.
On a macro level its pure mathematics and on a micro level its just caste equation & chemistry in Bihar & not algorithmically artificial intelligence generated twitter profiles. Like RJDs, Nitish EBC & women vote banks are too much consolidated & Yes, Giriraj will only win. It will bring down curtain on 9th feb 2016 JNU mindset when all naxalites got together to celebrate afzal guru tukde-tukde mindset.The infamed JNU boy is having its tally even less than CPI candidate for 2014. It’s good all urban naxals- Prakash Raj, kunal kamra, Javed akhtar, swara, shehla, jignesh et al have collected itself at one place to know their worth.
Gandhinagar: It’s a citadel
prepared by PM Modi very craftily from last 2 decades, which helps incumbent
retain its max tally in Gujarat 24/26 with Amit shah taking first time plunge
from this seat.
Wayanad: It’s
record voter turnout of 76% making it only ‘Rahul wave’ place in country;
congress will be the largest party in Kerala with more than 12/20 seats in
state
Pathanamthitta:
Sabarimala is still out of sight for BJP but by a whisker only; it may somehow goes
to congress
Thiruvananthapuram:
A crack and only entry point for BJP & ex-Governor Rajasekharan to make in
Kerala. It’s a sure win for him against incumbent thesaurus Tharoor
Bhopal: It
becomes a redemption seat for Digvijay singh & along with Indore (north-south
city combine favouring BJP) makes the party win with almost 21/29 seats (problem
being reserved seats in state where it has state anti-incumbency)
Puri: A low
voter turnout due to combined state election & anti-incumbency against
state government favors it to BJP. While party goes with heavy names in Bhubaneswar
& a diverse candidate Sambit Patra in Puri but it’s a bastion for BJD, where
margin of win was 3lacs last election, Puri win makes bjp cross 8/21 seats and
it looks somehow manageable under Patra & Ujjwala Yojana scheme.
West
Bengal: PM main focus turned from UP to WB with its maximum rallies & full
crowds-
Nadia,
Asansol, Malda, kolkata, Bardhaman, Cooch Behar to Darjeeling. Voters turnout,
transfer of CPI(M), congress votes & anti-incumbency against state rule will
may make it a comfortable win (15/42)
Gulbarga: It’s still favourable
for most afraid election candidate today Mr. Kharge on a reserved seat but
Mysore & Mangalore-Bangalore PM aura puts a decent seat mathematics in
Karnataka for BJP affected by Hassan effect & no Siddaramaiah effect (18/28)
Sivaganga:
With no star magic of Jayalalitha-Karunanidhi, & 4 years of hotch-potch
government, alliance factor of congress-DMK & BJP-AIADMK, anti-incumbency
against incumbents; it seems an equal fight for Karti, son of most corrupted person
in India today against BJP H.Raja (it’s all congress + DMK slide in Tamil Nadu
with a 1 seat for BJP)
Rajasthan:
An outlier and difficult to interpret its voters regarding exact seats or a
repeat of last general election 25 magic but it looks favourable for BJP (18/25);
While Maharashtra, Haryana,
Bihar, Uttarakhand, HP, Jammu, Delhi, North-East states show. a complete one sided show for PM Modi.
So, it's for another 5 years of PM Modi magic and disruption from status quo.
